March Madness is less than two months away and, with conference play underway, resumes are already well in development by teams hoping for a berth in the 65-team bracket. NaismithLives.com’s Jesse Arendt examines how the bracket currently looks (as of games played through January 21st, 2010).

Ranked by seed in order of South/Midwest/West/East Regions with Automatic Bids from each conference in parentheses.

1-seeds: Kansas (Big 12), Kentucky (SEC), Villanova (Big East), Syracuse

Kansas is probably the best team of the bunch, though Kentucky is officially No. 1 for now, despite having suffered many close calls and having only one RPI Top 25 win. Villanova is on a roll, being undefeated in the Big East and winning nine games away from home. Syracuse is on the top line, due to more RPI Top 100 wins (nine) than any other NCAA team and being No. 1 in the RPI.

2-seeds: Duke (ACC), Texas, Michigan State (Big 10), Kansas State

Duke is a No. 1 caliber seed in every way, except that they can’t win in true road games (0-3). Texas was a 1-seed until losing to Kansas State, dropping them to No. 2. Texas is the best 2-seed of the group and it is likely a five team race (six if Duke dominates the rest of the way) for the top line. Michigan State has recovered nicely and is cruising through a solid Big Ten.

3-seeds: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Purdue

West Virginia has done a terrific job winning games away from home (8-2), but hasn’t beaten a team in the RPI Top 25. Georgetown has come back strong after disappointing last season with big wins over Connecticut, Butler, Temple, and Pittsburgh. Wisconsin is back to being unbeatable at home, knocking off Duke, Ohio St, and Purdue at the Kohl Center already this season. Purdue’s fallen off a bit after a hot start, losing three of their last four games.

4-seeds: BYU (MWC), Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Temple (Atlantic-10)

Three of the four teams on this line can be viewed as surprises and Tennessee beating Kansas to stay this high is unexpected as well. BYU has eight wins away from home as well as six RPI Top 100 wins on their resume, while Temple also has eight road/neutral wins along with three RPI Top 25 wins (Villanova, Rhode Island, Xavier). Pittsburgh’s recovered well from two early defeats (Texas, Indiana) and beat four Big East teams currently in this tournament before losing to Georgetown this week. Tennessee has played a relatively easy schedule, but their toughest game to date – against Kansas – came after dismissing four players (two of which have returned) and still pulled off an upset, earning their spot. They kept it beating Mississippi last weekend.

5-seeds: Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest

ACC heavy line here. Clemson seems to always be around this line at this time of year, sometimes falling and sometimes maintaining (like last year). Beating UNC and NC State in the past 10 days helps keep them here, despite the road loss to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are moving up in a hurry with wins over Duke, UNC, and Clemson in the past two weeks. Wake Forest sneaks in with three wins over tournament teams in their last five games. Evan Turner’s effective return all but marginalizes the 3-3 run they had with him out and, since his return, the Buckeyes have beaten Purdue and Wisconsin.

6-seeds: Gonzaga (WCC), Xavier, Butler (Horizon), Vanderbilt

Mid-major heavy on this line. Gonzaga has solid wins over Wisconsin, Illinois, and Cincinnati. They also beat St. Mary’s to pull ahead in the WCC race. Butler will settle between No. 5 and No. 8 with a tough non-conference schedule, but only two notable wins (Ohio St and Xavier). Xavier has six losses, but all of them came against teams currently in the tournament. Vandy holds a spot this high for the time being with five RPI Top 100 wins, including below-the-radar wins over St. Mary’s and Missouri.

7-seeds: Baylor, Mississippi State, Northern Iowa (MVC), California (Pac-10)

Baylor’s been under the radar, beating two solid teams (Xavier and Arizona State) and taking Kansas to the limit in Lawrence. Mississippi State sneaks past Ole Miss after beating them two weeks ago. Northern Iowa had the second longest winning streak in Division I before losing to Wichita State (who just missed the cut in this bracket). California’s had a ton of tough losses early on, but has had the second most difficult schedule.

8-seeds: Ole Miss, Florida State, Missouri, New Mexico

Ole Miss has a great non-conference win over Kansas State. Florida State has two big wins away from home over Marquette and Georgia Tech. Missouri’s wins have become bigger after beating Old Dominion and Illinois in non-conference and had a big win over Kansas State to kick off Big 12 play. New Mexico had a great start to non-conference, beating California, Texas A&M, and Dayton, yet started 0-2 in MWC play.

9-seeds: Connecticut, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M

Connecticut struggled mightily for the last couple of weeks, but have had the toughest schedule in the country. Beating St. John’s ended the drought, but the Huskies face Texas on Saturday. Arizona State owns three RPI Top 100 wins and might be the best team in the Pac-10. St. Mary’s has recovered well from the loss of Patty Mills, going 7-1 away from home. Texas A&M has a big win over Clemson and nearly won at Texas last weekend.

10-seeds: Old Dominion (CAA), Maryland, Dayton, Rhode Island

Old Dominion’s in as the CAA representative, as they are part of a logjam atop the conference and possess a big win over Georgetown. Dayton has won every game they’re supposed to and beat Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. Their only losses came in close games to Villanova, Kansas State, New Mexico, and Xavier. Maryland’s sitting on a big win over Florida State, but has also beaten very team they should have, with the possible exception of bubble team William & Mary. Rhode Island is fading towards the bubble, but have two big games at Xavier and at Dayton coming up that can move ‘em up or move ‘em out.

11-seeds: UAB (Conference USA), Louisville, North Carolina, Cincinnati

UAB has beaten Cincinnati and Butler, and will be in a battle with Memphis, Tulsa, and Marshall for the C-USA crown (a conference with a slim chance of getting two teams in). Right now, just UAB gets in. Louisville’s been competitive against top teams Villanova and Kentucky, but could not close either game, and their best win is against probable NIT team St. John’s. Losing three in a row has put them square on the bubble. It seems strange to seed North Carolina this low, but they haven’t won a true road game and have now lost three in a row. The loss to Charleston was particularly troubling. However, they stay in for now, sitting on wins over Ohio State and Michigan State. Cincinnati has wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland, as well as a two-point win at home over Connecticut.

12-seeds: Minnesota, Siena (MAAC), UNLV, Cornell (Ivy)

This group includes two of the last three teams in and two good mid-major teams from probable one-bid conferences. Minnesota has two good wins over Butler and Ohio State, but a loss to Indiana moves them down on the bubble. Siena hasn’t been able to secure any big non-conference wins, so likely has to win the MAAC to secure a bid. UNLV has beaten Louisville and New Mexico, but lost to Utah at home. Cornell just moves ahead of Harvard for the Ivy bid, with two of their three losses coming to 1-seeds (Syracuse and Kansas).

13-seeds: Louisiana Tech (WAC), Murray State (OVC), Marquette, Western Carolina (Southern)

All teams from here down are automatic bids, with the exception of Marquette, the last team in. Louisiana Tech has three RPI Top 100 wins and, by dominating their conference, could make an at-large case. Marquette sneaks in despite a bad loss to DePaul, leaning on victories over Xavier and Georgetown. Western Carolina has already beaten Louisville at Freedom Hall. Murray State took Cal to the limit in Berkley, losing by five.

14-seeds: Weber State (Big Sky), Oakland (Summit), Buffalo (MAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Western Kentucky’s the team with the biggest wins, beating both Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Oakland’s played several top teams, but did not come within 15 in any game.

15-seeds: Pacific (Big West), Sam Houston State (Southland), Vermont (Am East), Morgan State (MEAC)

Pacific’s best win was against San Diego State. Sam Houston State is in a Southland battle with Stephen F. Austin, UT-San Antonio, and Texas A&M-CC (all 14- or 15-seed caliber teams). Morgan State has beaten Arkansas in Fayetteville. Vermont actually has nine true road wins, the most of any team in the tournament.

16-seeds: East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Quinnipiac (NEC),
Lafayette (Patriot, play-in), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC, play-in)

East Tennessee State will be in a free-for-all with Belmont, Campbell, and Mercer for the Atlantic Sun title. Quinnipiac, Mount St. Mary’s, and Robert Morris are the top three from the NEC, possibly for a play-in game. Arkansas-PB gets the SWAC spot, playing zero home games in non-conference, the fifth toughest non-conference schedule, and four teams in this bracket. Yes, they’re 4-12, but they’re 4-1 in conference and have the best RPI in the conference, which is easily the worst in Division I.

Tidbits:

Don’t be surprised if the Pac-10 ends up with less teams than the West Coast Conference. The conference could legitimately have just one bid this season and currently has only two on this bracket. Only three teams are even in the hunt for a bid (Washington is the other).

The Atlantic 10 could have up to five bids this year. The A-10 is very strong at the top, even though teams could play each other out of bids in conference play. The league will most likely settle with three or four berths, but five isn’t out of the question, meaning the A-10 could essentially replace the Pac-10 this year as a high-bid conference.

The Mountain West has four teams in the hunt for a spot in this bracket. Three teams are currently in and San Diego State is also very close. Factoring in USC’s postseason ban for 2010, the MWC – just like the A-10—is currently a much more dangerous conference than the Pac-10.

Multiple bids by conference:
Big East (9)
ACC (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
Big Ten (5)
A-10 (4)
MWC (3)
WCC (2)
Pac-10 (2)

Last in:
Marquette
Minnesota
Cincinnati
North Carolina

Last out:
Wichita State
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
Harvard
Virginia Tech
Virginia Commonwealth
William & Mary
Washington
Tulsa
Illinois

Most intriguing conference battles (probably for only one spot):
Ivy: Harvard vs Cornell
Conference USA: UAB vs Tulsa vs Memphis vs Marshall
CAA: Old Dominion vs William & Mary vs George Mason vs Northeastern vs VCU
WAC: Louisiana Tech vs Nevada vs Utah St vs New Mexico State
Southern: Western Carolina vs Charleston vs Davidson